GGII: China lithium battery industry research and analysis report for the first quarter of 2017

In 2017, the output of lithium battery in Q1 was 13.2GWh, down 3% year-on-year and 26.3% month-on-month. The industry impact of the whole quarter was as follows:

      The production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased slightly year-on-year, but the new energy buses experienced a cliff-like decline, which reduced the demand for upstream main power batteries and materials;

      In the digital field, the production and sales in the first quarter were stable, and the overall production and sales of batteries remained small growth year-on-year, with a growth rate of less than 5%. The main reason was that the export volume increased and some market segments maintained growth;

      In the field of power batteries, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery dropped sharply, and fell for the first time in the same period of last year. The main reason was that the subsidy policy was adjusted, the terminal sales were significantly lower than expected, and the battery pack energy density required 100 Whk/kg or more to have a 1:1 subsidy. The energy density of passenger car lithium iron phosphate battery is limited, which is not expected, so the order quantity of the automakers will drop and the output of the battery core enterprises will decrease.

      The price of power batteries fell by 15%-20%. Subsidy subsidies, the terminal car factory forced the price of battery companies to decline, due to the large number of domestic power battery companies, market competition increased, so the power battery prices began to decline significantly in the first quarter. In the battery module, the prices of lithium iron phosphate, ternary battery and lithium titanate battery are reduced by 0.3 yuan/Wh. The average price of the cylindrical single cell has dropped to 1 yuan / Wh.

      From the overall market in the first quarter, the main hot spot of the industry is:

      1) The price of cobalt has skyrocketed, and the price of related cathode materials has risen linearly. Especially for lithium cobalt oxide digital batteries, the cost is increased by more than 20% due to the cost of cobalt price increase;

      2) How much subsidy is linked to battery energy density, battery and vehicle companies are busy applying for new announcements, and are stimulated by high energy density demand and material capacity release, resulting in the decline in the price of conventional iron-lithium materials from the average price of 100,000/ton in 2016. Up to the current 88,000 / ton;

      3) The cost pressure of cylindrical ternary power battery enterprises has increased sharply, subsidies have decreased, and car companies have demanded price cuts for batteries. However, the price of ternary cathode materials has risen sharply, causing enterprises to suffer from “ups and downs”;

      4) The power battery subsidy declined, and the prices of related batteries, positive electrodes (except NCM, LMO), anodes, and separators all showed different declines.